The October Surprise

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NBA fans were treated to a sweet shock when the James Harden trade abruptly disrupted a cool, calm Saturday evening. In an offseason that included over 210 transactions, the weekend before the start of the season was suppose to be the moment of silence before the grind renewed. Many writers have broken down why the deal happened so suddenly, but I am curious about what this episode could possibly reveal about future transactions in the NBA.

During the NBA lockout, a new, harsh set of taxes was agreed upon as a form of competitive balance and revenue sharing. The prevalent thought among fans was that big market teams could no longer disregard the luxury tax limit. Doing so would make the team victim to very punitive measures such as the repeater tax (which greatly increases the monetary penalty a team faces for being over the luxury tax limit for 3 or more consecutive years). However, similar to public policy decisions, an action focused on solving a single problem will always have multiple side effects.

These side effects vibrate through many aspects of the NBA such as its teams' contending windows, its D-league, and its draft system. The details on how each are individually affected will be looked at in future posts, but one of the main consequences would be more fluid rosters in order to game things such as the repeater tax window. For example, draft picks become more valuable as cheap contract options, and the D-league becomes a more enticing entity to nurture assets. Additionally, every time a star gets traded in the upcoming seasons, more questions will be asked in hope of framing a narrative for the ever changing league.

It is easy to brainstorm many scenarios involving everyday league transactions and the questions they may generate. Drafting and developing a star might mean abandoning that player due to the stingier luxury tax, but teams will be able to benefit from their hard development work by trading the star for younger players and draft picks to replenish their future outlook. Will more teams become "farm" teams until they find that franchise player? Will this continue until an equilibrium is reached and every team has 2 stars? How much disruption in team rosters will be created when a team must drop out of the luxury tax after spending 2 years in it?  How will leverage for trades change? Will league average players lose job security? There are many more questions that can be asked, but there is no doubt that most teams in the the league (like the Thunder and Mavericks as recent examples) have preemptively made transactions to ensure flexibility in this evolving environment.

It will be exciting to watch the NBA continue to morph and new player combinations frequently emerge. What should not be surprising now is a future November, December, or March Surprise as the reality of the side effects of the new CBA ripples through the league.